Oscar Predictions 2009

So it would appear that Mr. Stephen Colbert has gotten the jump on yours truly once again. Due to The Colbert Report being dark this week Stephen made his Oscar predictions last Thursday [in advance of the show this coming Sunday]. He used his famed "The DaColbert Code" to make his predictions - which, two years ago allowed him to predict all five of the acting/best picture categories with 100% accuracy. While I'm a big fan of Oscar prediction [though, like Stephen, I don't see any of the films], I'm not as good as he has been. Last year Joseph and I both had just over a 50% prediction rate, which is not great...hopefully this year will return me to my previous glory years! So, without further adieu, here are all of my predictions for this year's Academy Awards...it's going to be lengthy...and please note that these picks represent who I think will win, not who I would like to win. And, for those who saw The Colbert Report...yes, I pretty much agreed with his five picks...but I swear I picked them weeks ago...

Actor in a Leading Role - Mickey Rourke [The Wrestler] - Hollywood loves a comeback story - whether real or fictional. Certainly there are few in lala land who have fallen harder and come back than Mr. Rourke. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a fan. Of his tackiness, his love of animals, etc. I do think that Sean Penn has a shot @ this as well, as the Academy loves a biopic...but I think he has already had an Oscar moment [he may have more in the future].

Actor in a Supporting Role - Heath Ledger [The Dark Knight] - If you pick anyone other than Heathus, you're just plain wrong. It's one of a few mortal locks of the evening. It will be interesting to see if the Academy stays true to its rule that no one can be appointed to pick up awards [instituted after Marlon Brando sent Sacheen Littlefeather to pick up his].

Actress in a Leading Role - Kate Winslet [The Reader] - Unlike everyone else in the world of hot celeb gossip, I'm not completely gaga over Kate Winslet. But I do think she will win this time [sixth time is the charm]. I'm a semi-unapologetic fan of Anne Hathaway [I think she's made some great career choices], but this is not her year [I felt she was strong enought to get nominated for Brokeback Mountain, but that didn't happen either].

Actress in a Supporting Role - Penelope Cruz [Vicky Cristina Barcelona] - Of the five main categories, this one is the toughest to call. The supporting awards can get all weird and given away to strange calls. I've heard great things about all of these performances. Viola Davis' performance is key to the whole plot of Doubt [though just one scene, very powerful], Taraji P. Henson is the heart and soul of Ben Button [and apparently the only good thing about the film] and Marisa Tomei totally nails that whole stripper with a heart of gold thing [though I think the Academy will punish her for her earlier win - that was rumoured to be a total frak up]. So, Penelope. I'm a fan of hers and I like that it's a comedic type of role - not nearly recognized enough [although I think more difficult to perfect than drama].

Animated Feature Film - Wall-E - This is another of the mortal locks for the evening. I typically find this category to be most perplexing. Although I'm not entirely aware of any, I'm sure that there are some other animated films that could round out the category to five. Also, this category was invented to avoid the Academy's percieved indignity @ having to nominate an animated picture for best film. Boo. But, still - Wall-E.

Art Direction - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Okay, not a fan of the film and totally mystified by its thirteen nominations, I figure it has to win for something. Though hopefully nothing big. This award should go to a film that is either not American or spans time. This one spans time.

Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire - I would really love to give this to The Dark Knight [and if it does, I will squeee like nobody's business], but this award is serious business and no one took TDK too seriously [thanks Heathus! y so srs?]. I think Slumdog Millionaire is going to do very well...and I'm mostly just confused by the other nominees.

Costume Design - The Duchess - Again, the other selections are a bit mystifying and dull, so I think it's The Duchess by default. I'm not sure that those voting will watch the film even, but by the tiny little picture they are showing, it looks pretty fashion fancy to me.

Directing - Slumdog Millionaire - Because [spoiler alert] I think it's going to win Best Picture and I'm going to bet on it winning both. As much as Hollywood likes to reward its own, in this case Ron Howard, he's already had his moment and people are peeing themselves over Slumdog Millionaire. It's unstoppable @ this point, really.

Documentary Feature - Man on Wire - Oh, only because it was amazing. True, I'm kinda going with my heart on this one - but it was very excellent. And this award tends to go to the documentary that banks. This one...kinda banked...and has some name recognition [it's no March of the Penguins...but still]. I will squeee when/if it wins. But I'm sure I would enjoy any of these films - I love documentaries.

Documentary Short - The Conscience of Nhem En - Quite frankly, this seems depressing as all get out. But I never can tell about these films as I strongly suspect that none of the voters watch them. This one has a bit of buzz [as much as documentary shorts have] and again, seems very depressing...which is always a crowd pleaser. And again, I would happily watch any of these films...and then become very depressed.

Film Editing - Slumdog Millionaire - I think this one might go to Ben Button as well, but I do feel Slumdog is a juggernaut right now. I think the film has a lot of back and forthness to it and some magic realism - all of this would be difficult to edit in a sensible fashion.

Foreign Language Film - Waltz With Bashir - I've heard quite a bit of buzz on this one and it has a different look [with the semi-animation, rotoscoping thing going on] that might catch the voters eyes. I've heard it's quite dark and depressing, but I think the subject matter is timely.

Make-Up - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - I'm not entirely sure how much of this trickery is makeup and how much is CGI...but I think the Academy will think it's makeup, so there you go. I did think the makeup in Hellboy was outstanding and in TDK it was subtle, but effective...but I think Ben Button has to win for a couple of things and this one seems the most obvious.

Music [Score] - Wall-E - First of all, can I just say that the score was so integral to the awesomeness that was TDK? Because it was...it was like another character. But, yeah. I think that people loved the Wall-E and I know it had limited speaking, so I'm assuming that score was a major component. And nothing tugs @ the heartstrings quite like cutey muffin gumbo robots and a quality score to pluck them.

Music [Song] - O Saya [Slumdog Millionaire] - And another thing - why are there only three songs nominated here? There weren't five worthy? How about a little someone called Bruce Springsteen, who is only THE BOSS. Jeepers. But I guess this song will win - it is done by MIA who is very hip right now [to be fair, she was really hip well over a year ago...but people always catch on really late to pop culture things].

Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire - I'm seriously tempted to make this another of my patented mortal locks. I'm just that confident. I don't necessarily think it is the best picture of the year [okay, it's *so* not], but I do think that it's created the perfect storm. A slowburn type of thing which just reached its hypiest during the essential months of January/February. It's cleaned up all other awards shows and expect it to be a big winner on Sunday.

Short Film [Animated] - Presto - I want to say that you can watch any of these short animated films on YouTube and you really should - they are all really good and mostly cute. My favourite is Oktapodi - mostly because I love octopi and all things cephalopod. However, Presto is Pixar and I think that the Academy wants to reward them because of their guilt over not nominating them for Best Picture. But please, go, seek out and watch! I love that the Oscars still has the so-called oddball categories. I love that animation dorks [Oktapodi is a student film] get to get gussied up and get the same damn award and screentime as precious Kate Winslet and whomever else. Yay geeks!

Short Film [Live Action] - New Boy - Eeesh. No clue on this one. And I love this category as well. Last year I was able to see them all, but this year I can't find them online. Maybe it's worth another YouTube check. I almost went with the Holocaust one [since, as Extras taught us - the Academy loves Holocaust films]...but, I dunno. If I'm being honest, the film I would most like to see is The Pig because it seems kinda random...but I think my selection might have a solid offering of cutey muffin gumbo and you can't fight that.

Sound Editing - The Dark Knight - Okay, I'm picking this one from the heart, too. I just think TDK should win for something other than Heathus. Also, it was the loudest film I saw all year [which, yeah - I know that's not what this award is for].

Sound Mixing - Wall-E - I used to be fantastic terrific @ picking these technical awards. I could call them a mile off. But these days, the technical awards are often these big blockbusters...because they want to recognize those films and make sure those actors turn up. But sure, why not Wall-E? Why not indeed.

Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button So, again it comes down to visual effects v. makeup. I know I said earlier that voters would think Ben Button was all about makeup...but, I dunno. I guess I'm hedging my bets with this one. Personally, the best visual effects I saw in a film this year appeared in Hellboy - it was visually stunning. But, whatever...Brad Pitt isn't being directed by David Fincher in that so no one cares.

Writing [Adapted Screenplay] - Slumdog Millionaire - I can't really say why I like Slumdog for this one...except that I love F. Scott Fitzgerald and honestly, that's just *not* the Ben Button I read all about as a precocious youngster. As previously mentioned, nothing is going to stop this film. I'm noticing how the Best Picture winner is also winning their respective screenplay category in recent years, so...here we go - chalk up one more win.

Writing [Original Screenplay] - Milk - I was actually kinda impressed that Milk was nominated for as much as it was...I think the whole gay thing still doesn't sit well with Hollywood [as ironic as that is]. A good biopic *is* difficult to pull off and while I'm not sure this one is great...it seems to be good enough. So, that'll do film, that'll do.

Okay! Enough! Done! What say you? Agree? Disagree? Agree to disagree? Just want me to shut the frak up? Comment away if you please. I will watch on Sunday and let you now just how right I am...I hope Joseph and I don't tie again this year. I like to pretend that I know all sorts of useless stuff like this, but he is far more shrewd than I am...